Primeira Liga · Relegation
Primeira Liga 2026/27 Relegation Battle
Updated 28 October 2026 · model projection from 50,000 simulations
League tableTitle raceFixtures
Casa Pia carry the highest relegation risk in the Primeira Liga 2026/27 at 57.4%. Casa Pia 57.4%, Estoril Praia 45.6%, Rio Ave 43.6% are most in danger.
Relegation probability over time
In danger
| # | Team | Pts | Relegation % | Proj pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 57.4% | 25 | Sporting CP 2% |
| 18 |  Estoril Praia | 2 | 45.6% | 26 | @Porto 4% |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 43.6% | 27 | @Acad. Viseu 20% |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 8 | 17.8% | 33 | Santa Clara 15% |
| 15 |  CD Nacional | 7 | 17.7% | 33 | @Arouca 28% |
| 12 |  Amadora | 10 | 6.5% | 38 | @Moreirense 45% |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 11 | 5.3% | 39 | Amadora 32% |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 3.7% | 39 | @Gil Vicente 30% |
| 8 |  Alverca | 11 | 1.8% | 43 | @SL Benfica 9% |
FAQ
Who will be relegated from the Primeira Liga?
The model's highest relegation risks are Casa Pia (57.4%), Estoril Praia (45.6%), Rio Ave (43.6%). These are estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.