Ligue 1 · Relegation
Ligue 1 2026/27 Relegation Battle
Updated 28 October 2026 · model projection from 50,000 simulations
League tableTitle raceFixtures
Le Havre carry the highest relegation / play-off risk in the Ligue 1 2026/27 at 69.4%. Le Havre 69.4%, Troyes 64.8%, Angers SCO 51.6% are most in danger.
Relegation probability over time
In danger
| # | Team | Pts | Relegation % | Proj pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 |  Le Havre | 2 | 69.4% | 25 | PSG 12% |
| 17 |  Troyes | 5 | 64.8% | 26 | Le Mans 34% |
| 14 |  Angers SCO | 8 | 51.6% | 29 | Nice 37% |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 7 | 27.8% | 34 | @Troyes 42% |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 10 | 26% | 35 | @Strasbourg 25% |
| 10 |  Nice | 11 | 20.4% | 35 | @Angers SCO 34% |
| 16 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 15.9% | 38 | Auxerre 55% |
| 13 |  Brest | 9 | 12.5% | 39 | Olympique Lyon 29% |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 10 | 4.6% | 44 | @Marseille 24% |
| 9 |  Lorient | 12 | 4.2% | 43 | @Le Havre 43% |
FAQ
Who will be relegated from the Ligue 1?
The model's highest relegation / play-off risks are Le Havre (69.4%), Troyes (64.8%), Angers SCO (51.6%). These are estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.