Bundesliga · Relegation
Bundesliga 2026/27 Relegation Battle
Updated 28 October 2026 · model projection from 50,000 simulations
League tableTitle raceFixtures
Union Berlin carry the highest relegation / play-off risk in the Bundesliga 2026/27 at 64.1%. Union Berlin 64.1%, M'gladbach 60.7%, HSV 43.6% are most in danger.
Relegation probability over time
In danger
| # | Team | Pts | Relegation % | Proj pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 6 | 64.1% | 29 | 1. FC Köln 41% |
| 18 |  M'gladbach | 3 | 60.7% | 30 | SC Paderborn 45% |
| 11 |  HSV | 9 | 43.6% | 34 | @Frankfurt 15% |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 27.3% | 37 | @Union Berlin 34% |
| 16 |  Schalke | 6 | 23.9% | 38 | RB Leipzig 29% |
| 14 |  Frankfurt | 8 | 21.1% | 40 | HSV 67% |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn | 8 | 19.3% | 40 | @M'gladbach 31% |
| 8 |  Elversberg | 10 | 10% | 44 | Mainz 49% |
| 6 |  Bremen | 12 | 6.4% | 46 | Hoffenheim 46% |
| 9 |  Augsburg | 9 | 6.2% | 47 | Freiburg 49% |
FAQ
Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga?
The model's highest relegation / play-off risks are Union Berlin (64.1%), M'gladbach (60.7%), HSV (43.6%). These are estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.