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Serie A · Fixtures

Roma vs Milan — Match Prediction

Serie A 2026/27 · Matchday 19 · Sat 9 Jan, 17:00 UTC

Roma win
52%
Draw
23%
Milan win
25%
Most likely score1–1
Projected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.5 goals57%
Both teams score57%
RomaDDWDW3rd · 21 pts
MilanWDWWL5th · 18 pts

Ahead of Roma v Milan in the Serie A on 9 January 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Roma the most likely outcome at 52%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–1, with projected goals of 1.8 for Roma and 1.2 for Milan. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and 57% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Roma goals down (↓), Milan goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings — Roma 0W · 1D · 1L.

Roma1–1Milan
Milan1–0Roma

Recent form

Roma
Wvs Cagliari4–2
D@ Napoli3–3
Wvs Genoa2–0
D@ Como 19070–0
Dvs Inter2–2
Milan
Lvs Bologna2–4
W@ Udinese2–0
Wvs Atalanta3–2
D@ Sassuolo1–1
Wvs Lecce3–0

What Does Footyntel's Model Predict for Roma vs Milan?

Footyntel's prediction model for the upcoming Serie A clash between AS Roma and AC Milan leverages a blend of statistical analysis and historical data. By evaluating each team's attacking and defensive performances this season, while also factoring in their form from the previous campaign, the model generates a probabilistic outlook on the match. This approach uses a Poisson goals model to simulate the fixture multiple times, providing insights into likely outcomes, projected goals, and the probability of events like over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring.

How Does Home Advantage Factor into the Roma vs Milan Prediction?

Playing at the iconic Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma traditionally enjoys a significant home advantage. The stadium's atmosphere and the familiar surroundings can bolster the team's performance, potentially influencing the model's predictions. Historically, Roma has been a formidable force at home, and this factor is crucial in shaping the model's assessment of their chances against AC Milan. While Milan's away form and their ability to handle hostile environments will also be considered, the home advantage remains a pivotal element in the model's evaluation.

Who Will Win Roma vs Milan?

Predicting the outcome of a match between two storied clubs like AS Roma and AC Milan is inherently challenging. Both teams boast rich histories and passionate fan bases, and their encounters are often closely contested. The model's prediction will be influenced by several factors:

While the model provides a probabilistic outlook, it is important to remember that football is unpredictable. The interplay of tactics, player form, and even external factors can all play a role in determining the winner.

Roma vs Milan Head-to-Head: What Does History Tell Us?

Historically, encounters between AS Roma and AC Milan have been tightly fought affairs. The two clubs have met numerous times in Serie A, with each side enjoying periods of dominance. In the recent data available to Footyntel, the head-to-head record indicates a competitive balance, with neither team having a clear upper hand. While specific past results are not discussed here, the general trend suggests that these matches are often decided by fine margins. The historical context, combined with current form and other factors, will be crucial in shaping the model's prediction for the upcoming fixture.

What to Look for in Roma vs Milan?

As fans and analysts prepare for the Roma vs Milan clash, several key aspects will be worth monitoring:

Footyntel's interactive tools, such as the scoreline-probability heatmap and the "what-if" simulator, allow users to explore various scenarios and gain deeper insights into the potential outcomes of the match. These tools provide a dynamic way to engage with the data and consider different tactical setups.

Embracing the Unpredictability of Football

While Footyntel's model offers a data-driven perspective on the Roma vs Milan match, it is essential to acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of football. Unexpected events, such as a player injury or a moment of individual brilliance, can significantly alter the course of a game. Therefore, while the model provides valuable insights, it is crucial to approach the prediction with an understanding that anything can happen on the pitch. This unpredictability is part of what makes football such an exciting and captivating sport.

FAQ

Who will win Roma vs Milan?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Roma the most likely result at 52%. Full split: Roma win 52%, draw 23%, Milan win 25%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Roma vs Milan?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–1 (Roma 1–1 Milan). Projected goals: Roma 1.8, Milan 1.2.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is Roma vs Milan played?

Roma host Milan at Stadio Olimpico in the Serie A on 9 January 2027.

What is the Roma vs Milan head-to-head record?

In the last 2 meetings in our data, Roma have 0 wins, Milan 1, and 1 was drawn.

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