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Serie A · Fixtures

Bologna vs Parma — Match Prediction

Serie A 2026/27 · Matchday 38 · Sun 30 May, 00:00 UTC

Bologna win
58%
Draw
25%
Parma win
16%
Most likely score1–0
Projected goals1.5 – 0.7
Over 2.5 goals38%
Both teams score39%
BolognaDWLWW11th · 11 pts
ParmaWLLLD18th · 5 pts

Ahead of Bologna v Parma in the Serie A on 30 May 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Bologna the most likely outcome at 58%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–0, with projected goals of 1.5 for Bologna and 0.7 for Parma. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and 39% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Bologna goals down (↓), Parma goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings — Bologna 1W · 0D · 1L.

Bologna0–1Parma
Parma1–3Bologna

Recent form

Bologna
W@ Milan4–2
W@ Cagliari2–0
Lvs Inter1–3
W@ Lecce2–1
Dvs Torino1–1
Parma
Dvs Udinese0–0
L@ Lazio1–2
Lvs Torino0–3
L@ Inter0–3
Wvs Genoa2–1

What does Footyntel's model expect from Bologna vs Parma, and how is the prediction made?

Footyntel's model predicts the outcome of the Bologna vs Parma clash by leveraging a blend of statistical analysis and historical data. The approach involves evaluating each team's attacking and defensive capabilities based on goals scored and conceded this season, adjusted to account for early-season fluctuations by regressing towards the league average. Additionally, the model incorporates last season's performance to ensure a comprehensive assessment. By simulating the match using a Poisson goals model, Footyntel generates win/draw/win probabilities, a most-likely scoreline, projected goals, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring. These insights are designed to provide a data-driven perspective on the upcoming fixture at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.

How does home advantage at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara influence the Bologna vs Parma prediction?

Playing at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara is often considered a significant advantage for Bologna. The stadium's atmosphere and familiar surroundings can bolster the team's performance, providing a psychological edge. Historically, home teams in Serie A have benefited from this factor, and Bologna is no exception. The model takes into account the potential boost in performance that Bologna might experience, which could be crucial in a closely contested match. Parma, on the other hand, will need to overcome the challenge of playing away from home, where they might face a more hostile environment and potentially less favorable conditions.

Who will win Bologna vs Parma?

Predicting the winner of Bologna vs Parma involves a nuanced analysis of both teams' current form and historical performance. While the model provides a probabilistic outlook, it is important to consider the inherent unpredictability of football. Bologna, with the home advantage, may have a slight edge, but Parma's ability to perform on the road and their recent form will be critical factors. The model's simulation accounts for these variables, offering a balanced view that reflects the complexities of the match. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how each team executes their strategy and adapts to the dynamics of the game.

Bologna vs Parma head-to-head: What does history tell us?

When examining the head-to-head history between Bologna and Parma, it is clear that these two teams have shared some intense battles over the years. Although Footyntel's data only covers a few recent encounters, the general trend suggests that matches between these clubs are often closely fought. Both teams have had their share of victories and defeats, indicating a competitive rivalry. The model considers this historical context, recognizing that past meetings can provide insights into the teams' tactical approaches and psychological dynamics. However, it is crucial to note that each match is unique, and past results are just one of many factors influencing the prediction.

What to look for in Bologna vs Parma: Key factors shaping the match

Several key factors will shape the outcome of the Bologna vs Parma match:

These factors, along with the model's projections, will provide a comprehensive understanding of the match. However, it is essential to remember that football is unpredictable, and surprises are always possible.

Interactive tools: Enhancing your match analysis

Footyntel offers interactive tools, such as a scoreline-probability heatmap and an "what-if" simulator, to enhance your analysis of the Bologna vs Parma match. These tools allow you to explore various scenarios and assess the potential outcomes based on different in-game situations. By engaging with these resources, you can gain deeper insights into the match dynamics and make more informed predictions.

FAQ

Who will win Bologna vs Parma?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Bologna the most likely result at 58%. Full split: Bologna win 58%, draw 25%, Parma win 16%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Parma?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–0 (Bologna 1–0 Parma). Projected goals: Bologna 1.5, Parma 0.7.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is Bologna vs Parma played?

Bologna host Parma at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in the Serie A on 30 May 2027.

What is the Bologna vs Parma head-to-head record?

In the last 2 meetings in our data, Bologna have 1 win, Parma 1, and 0 were drawn.

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