Footyntel.

Primeira Liga · Fixtures

SL Benfica vs Marítimo — Match Prediction

Primeira Liga 2026/27 · Matchday 22 · Sun 14 Feb, 00:00 UTC

SL Benfica win
85%
Draw
10%
Marítimo win
5%
Most likely score3–0
Projected goals3.2 – 0.7
Over 2.5 goals75%
Both teams score50%
SL BenficaWWLWW2nd · 22 pts
MarítimoLLDLL14th · 8 pts

Ahead of SL Benfica v Marítimo in the Primeira Liga on 14 February 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for SL Benfica the most likely outcome at 85%. The single most probable scoreline is 3–0, with projected goals of 3.2 for SL Benfica and 0.7 for Marítimo. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and 50% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — SL Benfica goals down (↓), Marítimo goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

21100065200010731001183100962100541000012345012345

Head-to-head

Last 1 meeting — SL Benfica 1W · 0D · 0L.

Marítimo0–3SL Benfica

Recent form

SL Benfica
W@ Santa Clara2–1
Wvs Vitória SC2–0
L@ Porto1–3
Wvs Gil Vicente3–1
W@ Moreirense4–0
Marítimo
L@ Vitória SC0–5
Lvs Porto1–2
D@ Gil Vicente1–1
L@ Moreirense1–3
Lvs SL Benfica0–3

What Does Footyntel's Model Expect from SL Benfica vs Marítimo?

Footyntel's prediction for the upcoming Primeira Liga clash between SL Benfica and Marítimo is generated using a robust statistical model. This approach takes into account each team's attacking and defensive metrics, regressed towards the league average for early-season matches, and blends in their form from the previous season. The model then simulates the match using a Poisson goals model to produce a probabilistic outcome, including win/draw/win probabilities, a most-likely scoreline, projected goals, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring.

How Does Home Advantage at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica Influence the SL Benfica vs Marítimo Prediction?

Playing at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica is often a significant advantage for SL Benfica. The home crowd, familiar surroundings, and the team's strong record at this venue can provide a psychological and tactical edge. Historically, SL Benfica has been formidable at home, which is a crucial factor in the model's prediction. The stadium's atmosphere can intimidate visiting teams, and Marítimo will need to be at their best to cope with the pressure. However, the model also considers Marítimo's recent performances and how they have fared against other top teams this season, which will influence the final prediction.

Who Will Win SL Benfica vs Marítimo?

Predicting the outcome of any football match involves a degree of uncertainty, and SL Benfica vs Marítimo is no exception. While SL Benfica's home advantage and their strong attacking prowess make them favourites, Marítimo's defensive resilience and recent form cannot be overlooked. The model's prediction will reflect the balance between these factors, providing a probabilistic outlook rather than a definitive answer. The interactive "what-if" simulator on Footyntel allows you to explore how different scenarios might affect the outcome, offering a deeper insight into the potential match dynamics.

SL Benfica vs Marítimo Head-to-Head: What Does History Tell Us?

In the recent data available to Footyntel, SL Benfica and Marítimo have met one time, though specific details of that encounter are not provided here. Generally, SL Benfica has held the upper hand in their head-to-head history, but football is unpredictable, and each match is unique. Marítimo has occasionally caused upsets against top teams, and their defensive organization can make them difficult to break down. The model's prediction will be informed by this historical context, but it will also heavily rely on the current season's data and recent form.

What to Look for in SL Benfica vs Marítimo?

When analysing this fixture, several key factors should be considered:

These elements, combined with the model's probabilistic approach, will provide a comprehensive prediction for the match. However, football is inherently unpredictable, and surprises are always possible. The model's predictions are statistical estimations, not certainties, and should be viewed as a guide rather than a definitive outcome.

Conclusion: Embracing the Unpredictability of Football

While Footyntel's model provides a detailed and data-driven prediction for SL Benfica vs Marítimo, it is important to remember that football is a sport of surprises. The model's predictions are based on historical data and current trends, but they cannot account for every variable that might influence the match. Whether you're a fan of SL Benfica or Marítimo, or simply a football enthusiast, the beauty of the game lies in its unpredictability. Enjoy the match and the excitement it brings, and remember that anything can happen once the whistle blows.

FAQ

Who will win SL Benfica vs Marítimo?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for SL Benfica the most likely result at 85%. Full split: SL Benfica win 85%, draw 10%, Marítimo win 5%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for SL Benfica vs Marítimo?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 3–0 (SL Benfica 3–0 Marítimo). Projected goals: SL Benfica 3.2, Marítimo 0.7.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is SL Benfica vs Marítimo played?

SL Benfica host Marítimo at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in the Primeira Liga on 14 February 2027.

What is the SL Benfica vs Marítimo head-to-head record?

In the last 1 meeting in our data, SL Benfica have 1 win, Marítimo 0, and 0 were drawn.

← Primeira Liga table & projection