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Primeira Liga · Fixtures

SL Benfica vs Famalicão — Match Prediction

Primeira Liga 2026/27 · Matchday 12 · Mon 30 Nov, 20:15 UTC

SL Benfica win
59%
Draw
22%
Famalicão win
18%
Most likely score1–0
Projected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.5 goals52%
Both teams score50%
SL BenficaWWLWW2nd · 22 pts
FamalicãoDDWLW11th · 10 pts

Ahead of SL Benfica v Famalicão in the Primeira Liga on 30 November 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for SL Benfica the most likely outcome at 59%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–0, with projected goals of 1.8 for SL Benfica and 0.9 for Famalicão. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and 50% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — SL Benfica goals down (↓), Famalicão goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings — SL Benfica 1W · 1D · 0L.

Famalicão2–2SL Benfica
SL Benfica1–0Famalicão

Recent form

SL Benfica
W@ Santa Clara2–1
Wvs Vitória SC2–0
L@ Porto1–3
Wvs Gil Vicente3–1
W@ Moreirense4–0
Famalicão
W@ Rio Ave4–0
Lvs Alverca1–4
W@ CD Nacional4–0
Dvs Sporting CP1–1
D@ Amadora2–2

What does Footyntel's model expect from SL Benfica vs Famalicão, and how is the prediction made?

Footyntel's prediction for the upcoming Primeira Liga clash between SL Benfica and FC Famalicão leverages a sophisticated statistical model. The approach begins by evaluating each team's offensive and defensive capabilities based on their goals scored and conceded so far this season, while also factoring in last season's performance to ensure a balanced perspective. This data is then fed into a Poisson goals model, which simulates the match to generate probabilities for a win, draw, or loss, as well as a most-likely scoreline and other key metrics. The model's predictions are grounded in data from football-data.org, providing a statistical forecast rather than speculative betting advice.

Who will win SL Benfica vs Famalicão?

Determining the winner of SL Benfica vs Famalicão involves a nuanced analysis of several factors. SL Benfica, playing at their home ground, the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, traditionally enjoys a significant advantage. The atmosphere, familiarity with the pitch, and the support of their passionate fanbase often bolster their performance. On the other hand, FC Famalicão will be looking to capitalize on any weaknesses and use their tactical acumen to potentially upset the odds. While the model provides a probabilistic outlook, the unpredictable nature of football means that any outcome is possible on the day.

SL Benfica vs Famalicão head-to-head: What does history tell us?

When examining the head-to-head history between SL Benfica and FC Famalicão, it's important to note that the data available to Footyntel includes only a couple of recent encounters. These matches provide a snapshot of the rivalry, indicating a competitive dynamic when these two sides meet. While specific scorelines are not discussed here, the general trend suggests that SL Benfica has often had the upper hand, but FC Famalicão has shown resilience and the ability to challenge their more illustrious opponents. This historical context, combined with current form, offers valuable insights but does not guarantee future results.

Key Points from Head-to-Head Encounters:

What to look for in SL Benfica vs Famalicão?

As we anticipate the clash between SL Benfica and FC Famalicão, several aspects warrant attention. Firstly, the home advantage at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica cannot be overstated. SL Benfica's record at home is typically strong, and the support from their fans can be a decisive factor. Conversely, FC Famalicão will be keen to exploit any vulnerabilities and use their away form as a platform for an upset.

From an attacking standpoint, SL Benfica has shown potency, often finding the back of the net with regularity. Their offensive strategies, combined with the home crowd's energy, could pose a significant challenge for FC Famalicão's defence. However, FC Famalicão has also demonstrated the ability to score, making them a threat on the counter-attack and in set-piece situations.

Defensively, both teams have had their moments of strength and weakness. SL Benfica's defence will need to be alert to the threats posed by FC Famalicão's attackers, while the visitors will aim to stifle SL Benfica's offensive prowess. The model's analysis suggests that the match could be a high-scoring affair, with a significant probability of both teams finding the net.

Factors to Consider:

Ultimately, while Footyntel's model provides a probabilistic forecast, it is essential to remember that football is inherently unpredictable. The beauty of the sport lies in its unpredictability, and any team can defy the odds on any given day. As fans and analysts, we can use data and models to guide our expectations, but the thrill of the game comes from the unexpected twists and turns that unfold on the pitch.

As you explore the interactive "what-if" simulator on this page, you can experiment with different scenarios and outcomes, gaining a deeper understanding of the potential dynamics of the match. This tool, alongside the scoreline-probability heatmap, offers a comprehensive view of the possible results, enhancing your matchday experience and analysis.

FAQ

Who will win SL Benfica vs Famalicão?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for SL Benfica the most likely result at 59%. Full split: SL Benfica win 59%, draw 22%, Famalicão win 18%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for SL Benfica vs Famalicão?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–0 (SL Benfica 1–0 Famalicão). Projected goals: SL Benfica 1.8, Famalicão 0.9.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is SL Benfica vs Famalicão played?

SL Benfica host Famalicão at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in the Primeira Liga on 30 November 2026.

What is the SL Benfica vs Famalicão head-to-head record?

In the last 2 meetings in our data, SL Benfica have 1 win, Famalicão 0, and 1 was drawn.

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