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Ligue 1 · Fixtures

Auxerre vs Monaco — Match Prediction

Ligue 1 2026/27 · Matchday 19 · Sat 6 Feb, 00:00 UTC

Auxerre win
26%
Draw
23%
Monaco win
51%
Most likely score1–1
Projected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.5 goals57%
Both teams score58%
AuxerreWWLWD12th · 10 pts
MonacoDWDLD4th · 15 pts

Ahead of Auxerre v Monaco in the Ligue 1 on 6 February 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes an away win for Monaco the most likely outcome at 51%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–1, with projected goals of 1.2 for Auxerre and 1.8 for Monaco. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and 58% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Auxerre goals down (↓), Monaco goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings — Auxerre 0W · 1D · 1L.

Monaco2–2Auxerre
Auxerre1–2Monaco

Recent form

Auxerre
Dvs Le Mans1–1
W@ Le Havre3–1
L@ Stade Rennais1–4
Wvs Brest2–1
Wvs Nice1–0
Monaco
Dvs Lille1–1
L@ Lorient0–1
Dvs Toulouse2–2
Wvs RC Lens2–1
D@ Strasbourg1–1

What Does Footyntel's Model Predict for Auxerre vs Monaco?

Footyntel's model combines each team's attack and defense ratings, factoring in goals scored and conceded this season while regressing early data toward the league average. It also incorporates last season's form to simulate the match using a Poisson goals model. This approach generates win/draw/win probabilities, a most-likely scoreline, projected goals, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring. For Auxerre vs Monaco, the model considers Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps' influence and each side's strengths and weaknesses to provide a balanced prediction.

How Does Home Advantage at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps Impact the Auxerre vs Monaco Prediction?

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps is known for its passionate atmosphere and can be a challenging venue for visiting teams. Auxerre will look to leverage this home advantage to impose their style of play and put pressure on Monaco. The model accounts for home advantage, which can influence the win probabilities and projected scorelines. Historically, Auxerre has been stronger at home, and this factor could be crucial in shaping the outcome of the match. Monaco, however, has a strong away record in recent seasons, which adds an intriguing dynamic to the prediction.

Who Will Win Auxerre vs Monaco?

Predicting the winner of Auxerre vs Monaco involves a detailed analysis of both teams' current form and historical performance. Auxerre, as the home team, will be looking to capitalize on their familiarity with the pitch and the support of their fans. Their attack, which has shown promise this season, will be key to breaking down Monaco's defense. On the other hand, Monaco's defense has been solid, and their ability to counter-attack could pose a significant threat to Auxerre. The model's prediction will be influenced by these factors, but it is important to note that football is inherently unpredictable, and any team can emerge victorious on their day.

Auxerre vs Monaco Head-to-Head: What Does History Tell Us?

Historically, Auxerre and Monaco have faced each other multiple times, with each encounter providing valuable insights into their rivalry. While Footyntel's data only covers recent matches, it is clear that both teams have had their share of successes and challenges against each other. The head-to-head record indicates a competitive rivalry, with neither team having a clear dominance. This history suggests that the upcoming match will be closely contested, with both teams striving to assert their superiority. The model's prediction will reflect this competitive balance, taking into account the nuances of their past encounters.

Key Points from Head-to-Head History:

What to Look for in Auxerre vs Monaco

When analyzing Auxerre vs Monaco, several factors stand out as crucial to the match's outcome. Firstly, Auxerre's home form will be under scrutiny, as they seek to maintain their strong record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their attacking prowess will be vital in unlocking Monaco's defense. Meanwhile, Monaco's defense will be tested by Auxerre's offensive threats, and their ability to transition from defense to attack could be decisive. The model's scoreline-probability heatmap and interactive "what-if" simulator on the page allow readers to explore different scenarios and gain a deeper understanding of the match dynamics.

Factors to Consider:

Embracing the Unpredictability of Football

While Footyntel's model provides a comprehensive analysis and prediction for Auxerre vs Monaco, it is essential to remember that football is unpredictable. The beauty of the sport lies in its unpredictability, where underdog stories and unexpected results are part of its charm. As fans and analysts, we can use data and models to guide our expectations, but the final outcome will ultimately depend on the players' performances, tactical decisions, and a bit of luck. Whether you're a supporter of Auxerre or Monaco, this match promises to be an exciting chapter in their ongoing rivalry.

FAQ

Who will win Auxerre vs Monaco?

Footyntel's model makes an away win for Monaco the most likely result at 51%. Full split: Auxerre win 26%, draw 23%, Monaco win 51%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs Monaco?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–1 (Auxerre 1–1 Monaco). Projected goals: Auxerre 1.2, Monaco 1.8.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is Auxerre vs Monaco played?

Auxerre host Monaco at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in the Ligue 1 on 6 February 2027.

What is the Auxerre vs Monaco head-to-head record?

In the last 2 meetings in our data, Auxerre have 0 wins, Monaco 1, and 1 was drawn.

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