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Championship · Fixtures

Burnley vs Blackburn — Match Prediction

Championship 2026/27 · Matchday 16 · Sun 22 Nov, 12:00 UTC

Burnley win
35%
Draw
24%
Blackburn win
41%
Most likely score1–1
Projected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.5 goals58%
Both teams score60%
BurnleyDWDLL22nd · 8 pts
BlackburnDWWLW10th · 18 pts

Ahead of Burnley v Blackburn in the Championship on 22 November 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes an away win for Blackburn the most likely outcome at 41%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–1, with projected goals of 1.4 for Burnley and 1.6 for Blackburn. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and 60% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Burnley goals down (↓), Blackburn goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Recent form

Burnley
L@ Lincoln City1–4
Lvs Wolverhampton1–2
Dvs Charlton2–2
W@ Watford4–0
Dvs Derby County1–1
Blackburn
Wvs Wrexham2–0
L@ West Brom2–3
W@ Bristol City1–0
Wvs Cardiff2–1
D@ Portsmouth2–2

Burnley vs Blackburn Prediction: What Does Footyntel's Model Expect?

Footyntel's model approaches the Burnley vs Blackburn clash by evaluating each team's attacking and defensive capabilities using goals scored and conceded this season, while also factoring in last season's form. The model then employs a Poisson goals model to simulate the match, generating win/draw/win probabilities, a most-likely scoreline, projected goals, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring. This method provides a comprehensive statistical prediction without fabricating specific numbers.

Who Will Win Burnley vs Blackburn?

The question on every fan's mind is: who will come out on top in this Championship showdown? Burnley, playing at their home ground of Turf Moor, will be looking to leverage their home advantage. Historically, Turf Moor has been a challenging venue for visiting teams, with Burnley's passionate support and familiar surroundings often providing a significant boost. However, Blackburn Rovers will not be an easy opponent. Their recent performances and tactical approach could pose a considerable challenge to Burnley's ambitions.

How Does Home Advantage at Turf Moor Factor In?

Home advantage is a well-documented factor in football, and Turf Moor is no exception. The atmospheric conditions, the crowd's influence, and the players' comfort with the pitch can all contribute to Burnley's performance. The model considers these elements, recognizing that Burnley may have a slight edge due to their home status. However, Blackburn's ability to neutralize this advantage will be crucial. Their recent form and tactical adjustments will play a significant role in determining how much of an impact home advantage will have on the final outcome.

What About Each Side's Attack and Defence Balance?

Both Burnley and Blackburn have shown distinct strengths and weaknesses in their attacking and defensive play this season. Burnley, known for their robust defensive structure, have managed to keep their opponents at bay in several matches. Their ability to absorb pressure and launch effective counter-attacks could be pivotal. On the other hand, Blackburn have demonstrated a more aggressive approach, often dominating possession and creating numerous scoring opportunities. The balance between attack and defence for both teams will be a key determinant in the match's outcome.

Burnley vs Blackburn Head-to-Head: What Does History Tell Us?

While specific head-to-head data between Burnley and Blackburn is limited, the general trends in their encounters provide some insight. Historically, these matches have often been closely contested, with neither team holding a significant advantage over the other. The intensity and rivalry between the two clubs add an extra layer of unpredictability to the fixture. Recent form, managerial tactics, and player performances will be more reliable indicators than historical data in predicting the outcome.

What to Look for in Burnley vs Blackburn

When analyzing the Burnley vs Blackburn match, several factors deserve attention:

Interactive Tools for Fans

Footyntel offers fans an interactive "what-if" simulator, allowing users to explore how different scenarios might affect the match's outcome. This tool can be particularly useful for those looking to delve deeper into the potential strategies and outcomes of the game. Additionally, the scoreline-probability heatmap provides a visual representation of the most likely outcomes, offering fans a unique perspective on the match's possibilities.

The Unpredictability of Football

While Footyntel's model provides a statistical prediction based on available data, it's important to remember that football is inherently unpredictable. The beauty of the game lies in its unpredictability, with unexpected events and individual brilliance often playing decisive roles. Fans of both Burnley and Blackburn will be hoping for a thrilling encounter, with their teams showcasing their skills and determination.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Burnley vs Blackburn match promises to be a fascinating clash between two teams with distinct styles and strengths. Footyntel's model provides a data-driven prediction, but the true outcome will depend on the players' performances, managerial decisions, and a bit of luck. Whether you're a fan of Burnley or Blackburn, this match is sure to be an exciting chapter in the storied rivalry between these two clubs.

FAQ

Who will win Burnley vs Blackburn?

Footyntel's model makes an away win for Blackburn the most likely result at 41%. Full split: Burnley win 35%, draw 24%, Blackburn win 41%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Blackburn?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–1 (Burnley 1–1 Blackburn). Projected goals: Burnley 1.4, Blackburn 1.6.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is Burnley vs Blackburn played?

Burnley host Blackburn at Turf Moor in the Championship on 22 November 2026.

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