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Bundesliga · Fixtures

Augsburg vs Mainz — Match Prediction

Bundesliga 2026/27 · Matchday 10 · Sun 22 Nov, 14:30 UTC

Augsburg win
56%
Draw
19%
Mainz win
24%
Most likely score2–1
Projected goals2.4 – 1.5
Over 2.5 goals74%
Both teams score71%
AugsburgDLDLD9th · 9 pts
MainzLWLWL7th · 10 pts

Ahead of Augsburg v Mainz in the Bundesliga on 22 November 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Augsburg the most likely outcome at 56%. The single most probable scoreline is 2–1, with projected goals of 2.4 for Augsburg and 1.5 for Mainz. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and 71% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Augsburg goals down (↓), Mainz goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings — Augsburg 0W · 0D · 2L.

Mainz2–0Augsburg
Augsburg1–4Mainz

Recent form

Augsburg
Dvs Union Berlin1–1
L@ Elversberg3–4
Dvs Bayern2–2
L@ Bremen2–3
Dvs Leverkusen2–2
Mainz
Lvs Bremen2–3
W@ Schalke1–0
Lvs Leverkusen3–4
W@ M'gladbach4–3
Lvs Frankfurt1–3

What Does Footyntel's Model Predict for Augsburg vs Mainz?

Footyntel's model provides a data-driven forecast for the Bundesliga clash between FC Augsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05. By analyzing each team's attack and defence strengths, factoring in their recent form and historical data, the model simulates the match using a Poisson goals model. This approach generates win/draw/win probabilities, a most-likely scoreline, and insights into goal projections and over/under chances.

How Does the Augsburg vs Mainz Prediction Work?

The prediction process begins with a detailed evaluation of both teams' performances. For FC Augsburg, playing at their home ground, the WWK Arena, the model considers the historical advantage of playing in front of their fans. This home advantage is a significant factor in the Bundesliga, where teams often perform better on their own turf. On the other hand, 1. FSV Mainz 05's performance metrics, including their goals scored and conceded, are scrutinized to assess their current form and tactical approach.

The model also takes into account the following aspects:

By blending these factors, the model simulates thousands of possible match scenarios to arrive at a probabilistic prediction.

Who Will Win Augsburg vs Mainz?

Predicting the winner of any football match is inherently uncertain, and the Augsburg vs Mainz clash is no exception. While the model provides a probabilistic outlook, it is important to remember that football is unpredictable. The simulation suggests a range of potential outcomes, with the most likely scenarios highlighted. However, the beauty of the sport lies in its unpredictability, and upsets are always possible.

FC Augsburg, with the support of their home crowd, may have a slight edge, but Mainz's defensive resilience and attacking prowess could also play a crucial role. The model's projections will be influenced by the latest data and trends, offering a nuanced perspective on the match.

Augsburg vs Mainz Head-to-Head: What Does History Tell Us?

When examining the head-to-head history between FC Augsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05, several patterns emerge. Although specific past results are not detailed here, the general trend indicates that matches between these two clubs are often closely contested. Both teams have had their share of victories and defeats, with the outcomes often hinging on fine margins.

The head-to-head record suggests that neither team has a clear dominance over the other, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to their encounters. This competitive balance is a testament to the quality and determination of both squads, setting the stage for an exciting match.

What to Look for in Augsburg vs Mainz

As fans and analysts prepare for the Augsburg vs Mainz match, several key factors should be closely monitored:

The interactive "what-if" simulator on the Footyntel page allows users to explore how different scenarios might affect the match outcome. This tool provides a fascinating insight into the potential dynamics of the game, encouraging fans to engage with the prediction process.

Conclusion: Embracing the Unpredictability of Football

In conclusion, while Footyntel's model offers a comprehensive prediction for the Augsburg vs Mainz match, it is crucial to embrace the inherent unpredictability of football. The model provides a probabilistic framework, but the actual result will depend on the unique circumstances of the day. As the match unfolds, the interplay of tactics, player performances, and moments of individual brilliance will ultimately determine the outcome. Whether you're a fan of Augsburg or Mainz, this promises to be a captivating encounter that showcases the best of the Bundesliga.

FAQ

Who will win Augsburg vs Mainz?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Augsburg the most likely result at 56%. Full split: Augsburg win 56%, draw 19%, Mainz win 24%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Augsburg vs Mainz?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 2–1 (Augsburg 2–1 Mainz). Projected goals: Augsburg 2.4, Mainz 1.5.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is Augsburg vs Mainz played?

Augsburg host Mainz at WWK Arena in the Bundesliga on 22 November 2026.

What is the Augsburg vs Mainz head-to-head record?

In the last 2 meetings in our data, Augsburg have 0 wins, Mainz 2, and 0 were drawn.

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