Footyntel.

Brasileirão Série A · Fixtures

Santos vs Grêmio — Match Prediction

Brasileirão Série A 2026 · Matchday 36 · Sat 21 Nov, 00:00 UTC

Santos win
53%
Draw
24%
Grêmio win
23%
Most likely score1–1
Projected goals1.7 – 1
Over 2.5 goals52%
Both teams score53%
SantosWDLWD8th · 47 pts
GrêmioDDDLW17th · 34 pts

Ahead of Santos v Grêmio in the Brasileirão Série A on 21 November 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Santos the most likely outcome at 53%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–1, with projected goals of 1.7 for Santos and 1 for Grêmio. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and 53% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Santos goals down (↓), Grêmio goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

673100111162109105200563100221000110000012345012345

Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings — Santos 0W · 1D · 2L.

Grêmio3–2Santos
Santos1–1Grêmio
Grêmio1–0Santos

Recent form

Santos
Dvs Bahia1–1
W@ Fluminense2–1
L@ Mineiro1–2
Dvs Flamengo2–2
W@ São Paulo2–1
Grêmio
W@ Coritiba1–0
Lvs Cruzeiro2–4
Dvs Internacional1–1
D@ Clube do Remo1–1
Dvs Palmeiras0–0

What Does Footyntel's Model Predict for Santos vs Grêmio?

Footyntel's prediction for the upcoming Brasileirão Série A clash between Santos and Grêmio is generated through a meticulous statistical approach. By evaluating each team's offensive and defensive capabilities, factoring in their current season's performance adjusted towards the league average, and blending in last season's form, the model simulates the match using a Poisson goals model. This method provides a probabilistic outlook on the match, including win/draw/win probabilities, a most-likely scoreline, projected goals, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring.

How Does Home Advantage at Estádio Urbano Caldeira Influence the Santos vs Grêmio Prediction?

Estádio Urbano Caldeira, known for its vibrant atmosphere and passionate supporters, plays a crucial role in shaping the Santos vs Grêmio prediction. Home advantage is a well-documented factor in football, often providing a psychological and tactical edge to the home team. For Santos, playing at home could mean:

However, Grêmio's ability to manage these challenges and leverage their own strengths will be key to neutralizing Santos' home advantage.

Who Will Win Santos vs Grêmio: Analysing Attack and Defence

When assessing who will win Santos vs Grêmio, it's essential to look at the balance between attack and defence for both teams. Santos, known for their attacking flair, have demonstrated a strong offensive output this season, consistently creating scoring opportunities and applying pressure on opposing defences. Their ability to break down defensive lines and capitalize on set pieces could be pivotal in this encounter.

On the other hand, Grêmio have shown resilience and discipline in their defensive structure. Their solid backline, combined with a strong goalkeeper, has been instrumental in keeping opponents at bay. Grêmio's defensive organization will be tested against Santos' potent attack, and their ability to counter-attack swiftly could turn the tide in their favour.

The model's prediction will weigh these factors, considering how Santos' attack matches up against Grêmio's defence and vice versa, to provide a comprehensive outlook on the likely outcome.

Santos vs Grêmio Head-to-Head: What Does History Tell Us?

Looking at the Santos vs Grêmio head-to-head history, the data from Footyntel's records indicates that these two clubs have met three times in recent years. While specific results are not disclosed, the general trend suggests a competitive and closely contested rivalry. Both teams have had their share of victories and setbacks, reflecting the balanced nature of their encounters.

Historically, matches between Santos and Grêmio have been characterized by tactical battles, with both teams relying on their strengths to outmanoeuvre each other. This history of tight contests implies that the upcoming fixture could be another closely fought battle, with the result often hinging on small details and moments of individual brilliance.

What to Look for in Santos vs Grêmio: Key Factors and Insights

As we anticipate the Santos vs Grêmio clash, several key factors will influence the match's outcome:

These elements, combined with the statistical insights from Footyntel's model, provide a nuanced perspective on what to expect from this encounter.

Interactive Tools: Enhancing Your Match Analysis

Footyntel offers an interactive "what-if" simulator that allows users to explore different scenarios and outcomes for the Santos vs Grêmio match. This tool, alongside the scoreline-probability heatmap, provides a visual representation of potential results, helping fans and analysts alike to delve deeper into the possible dynamics of the game.

While these tools offer valuable insights, it's important to remember that football is inherently unpredictable. The beauty of the sport lies in its unpredictability, and even the most sophisticated models can only provide probabilistic forecasts, not certainties.

Conclusion: A Balanced Preview of Santos vs Grêmio

In conclusion, the Santos vs Grêmio match promises to be a compelling contest, with both teams bringing their unique strengths and strategies to the table. The model's prediction, grounded in statistical analysis, offers a balanced view of the likely outcome, while the interactive tools provide additional layers of analysis. As fans eagerly await the clash, the only certainty is that the beautiful game will continue to surprise and delight.

FAQ

Who will win Santos vs Grêmio?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Santos the most likely result at 53%. Full split: Santos win 53%, draw 24%, Grêmio win 23%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Santos vs Grêmio?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–1 (Santos 1–1 Grêmio). Projected goals: Santos 1.7, Grêmio 1.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring.

Where is Santos vs Grêmio played?

Santos host Grêmio at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in the Brasileirão Série A on 21 November 2026.

What is the Santos vs Grêmio head-to-head record?

In the last 3 meetings in our data, Santos have 0 wins, Grêmio 2, and 1 was drawn.

← Brasileirão Série A table & projection